Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the nation and caused chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
